At a private dinner in Sydney last year with Mick Mulvaney, one of Donald Trump’s four chiefs of staff during his presidency, the discussion turned to Trump’s prospects for 2024.
Who do you think would be his vice president? “Tim Scott,” I said.
Black conservative Republican Senator from South Carolina. Perfect complement to Trump. Mulvaney had served in the House from South Carolina and knows Scott well. Not vice president, Mulvaney said. He’s running for president.
Mulvaney was right. Last week, Scott announced his exploratory committee for the campaign. It was powerful. The video opened at Ft Sumter, the first battle of the Confederacy at the outset of the Civil War. Nice place to be if you want to appeal to today’s Republicans who are not happy with the state of the union.
Our country is being threatened … our divisions are real … I threaten their control …. Democratic grievance versus our greatness … our children are taught to believe we are an evil country … the radical left Democrats weaponize race to divide us .. but I disrupt their narrative.
Scott is very compelling. He recounted how he was raised by a single mother living in poverty. Scott is fond of saying “Our family went from Cotton to Congress in one lifetime.” He affirms that America is a land of opportunity – not a land of oppression. He policies: anti-China, choice in education, defend America’s borders and its streets, and protect the right to life. Scott pledges to “defend the Judeo-Christian foundation our nation is built on and protect our religious liberty.”
It is a message of achievement, optimism and conservatism.
It is meant to appeal to mainstream Republican voters who want the values Trump and Republicans have championed for the past seven years, but held and conveyed by a compassionate, appealing, messenger.
As Politico reported in assessing Scott’s announcement, “Donors float him as a potential alternative to Donald Trump, should Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stumble. And Scott’s genteel personality and lack of past Trump entanglements could give him unique appeal to independents and a newer swath of GOP voters. A foregone conclusion, though, is that evangelicals — with all their subsets and denominations — will be his top constituency.” Conservatives, Scott told the AP, are “starved for hope.”
Trump and Florida governor Ron DeSantis (who has not yet entered the race but is doing everything he needs to formally announce) are the two behemoths in the arena.
They suck all the oxygen out of the room.
Trump is all rage, fury, and retribution.
DeSantis is Trump distilled, with little of the emotive power but significant Trumpist policy capital that he has refined and weaponized, especially by attacking all things woke.
How can Tim Scott, not well known nationally, a Senator without a record of landmark legislative achievement, a black man in a party organically hostile to people of colour: how can Tim Scott take on Godzilla v King Kong – and win?
The early Republican primaries are the key to Scott’s strategy:
- The Iowa caucuses are January 22. Small, rural state. Very conservative. The Scott family knows farms and crops. Scott will want to do what Barack Obama did in 2008: connect up close and personal with Iowans and defeat the frontrunner. That year, it was Hillary Clinton – and Obama showed that a black man can win in a white state. If Scott can replicate Obama and win in Iowa, why not elsewhere?
- New Hampshire is a week later, January 30. New Hampshire, proud of its flinty individualism, loves to play a contrarian role in the primaries. In 2000, John McCain stunned George W Bush – and for a moment came close to taking Bush down. In 2016, it was Trump who upended Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Ted Cruz. If Tim Scott wins in Iowa and uses that momentum to prevail in New Hampshire, he becomes fully competitive.
- The South Carolina primary is February 24. South Carolina is home to Nikki Haley, former governor and UN Ambassador under Trump, who is also in the race. In 2012, Haley appointed Scott to a vacant Senate seat, and Scott won the seat outright in 2022. Scott ended his campaign with over $20 million in the bank. Trump wants to eviscerate Haley because of her disloyalty by running against him and for saying that it is time for the party to move on beyond Trump. For Scott – and Hayley – how close they come to the front runners will be crucial.
Tim Scott has the opportunity to surprise in the early primaries. And then capitalize on that in Florida, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and California, and really demonstrate national appeal.
The Trump-DeSantis dogfight is already taking on brutal proportions
DeSantis is waiting for his moment to go full frontal on his fellow Floridian. Trump is denigrating DeSantis at every opportunity. His latest ad plays on the gossip – brace yourselves, dear readers – that DeSantis eats pudding with his fingers – and what that portends for Trump’s views on Social Security and Medicare. Honest! Worse is to come.
If Scott cannot take the crown himself, but acquits himself admirably through the early primaries, he would be a contender for vice president. His ascension to the ticket with his fresh face and positive appeal could help smooth out some the rough edges of Trump or DeSantis, bringing into play independent voters and making the Republican ticket more electable.